CA Bastia 2–2 Istres: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

CA Bastia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Istres

S. Mba 81'

M. Camara 10'

M. Doumbia 52'

J. Leroy 33'

1/24/2014

Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Armand Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CA Bastia35%

×Draw27%

Istres38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CA BastiaExpected goals in this matchIstres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.26

CA Bastia

1.19

Istres

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

0.79

creates per match

0.99

1.53

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

CA Bastia

0.79

Istres

0.99

allows per match

CA Bastia

1.53

Istres

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CA Bastia+0.00on par

Istres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA Bastia ↓

Istres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CA Bastia or draw

62%

CA Bastia or Istres

73%

Draw or Istres

65%

Winning margin

CA Bastia wins by 2+

14%

Istres wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

CA Bastia 1+ goals

70%

CA Bastia 2+ goals

33%

CA Bastia 3+ goals

12%

Istres 1+ goals

72%

Istres 2+ goals

36%

Istres 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CA Bastia (draw refunded)

48%

Istres (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA Bastia at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Istres away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA Bastia attack 0.79 + Istres defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.19

Istres attack 0.99 + CA Bastia defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CA Bastia scores more

35%

level

27%

Istres scores more

38%

Istres at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Istres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

33'

52'

81'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff