Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bzenec vs Vsetín — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Bzenec
Bzenec
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Vsetín
Vsetín
4/9/20254. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 17Fotbalový Stadión Bzenec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Bzenec47%
×Draw23%
Vsetín31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bzenec
1.83
Vsetín
1.45

Bzenec creates 26% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 67 away

creates per match

Bzenec
2.30
Vsetín
1.49

allows per match

Bzenec
1.41
Vsetín
1.36

finishing

Bzenec+0.00on par
Vsetín+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bzenec ↓

Vsetín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bzenec or draw
69%
Bzenec or Vsetín
77%
Draw or Vsetín
53%

Winning margin

Bzenec wins by 2+
25%
Vsetín wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bzenec 1+ goals
84%
Bzenec 2+ goals
54%
Bzenec 3+ goals
28%
Vsetín 1+ goals
77%
Vsetín 2+ goals
42%
Vsetín 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bzenec (draw refunded)
60%
Vsetín (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bzenec at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

Vsetín away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bzenec attack 2.30 + Vsetín defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.83

Vsetín attack 1.49 + Bzenec defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bzenec scores more
47%
level
23%
Vsetín scores more
31%

Bzenec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bzenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bzenec vs Vsetín

Vsetín beat Bzenec 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on April 9, 2025.

The match was played at Fotbalový Stadión Bzenec in Bzenec.