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Bzenec vs Tatran Všechovice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Bzenec
Bzenec
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Tatran Všechovice
Tatran Všechovice
3/9/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 16Fotbalový Stadión Bzenec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Bzenec55%
×Draw20%
Tatran Všechovice25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bzenec
2.40
Tatran Všechovice
1.58

Bzenec creates 52% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

creates per match

Bzenec
2.30
Tatran Všechovice
1.76

allows per match

Bzenec
1.41
Tatran Všechovice
2.51

finishing

Bzenec+0.00on par
Tatran Všechovice+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bzenec ↓

Tatran Všechovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Bzenec or draw
75%
Bzenec or Tatran Všechovice
80%
Draw or Tatran Všechovice
45%

Winning margin

Bzenec wins by 2+
35%
Tatran Všechovice wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bzenec 1+ goals
91%
Bzenec 2+ goals
69%
Bzenec 3+ goals
42%
Tatran Všechovice 1+ goals
79%
Tatran Všechovice 2+ goals
47%
Tatran Všechovice 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bzenec (draw refunded)
69%
Tatran Všechovice (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bzenec at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

Tatran Všechovice away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.51 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bzenec attack 2.30 + Tatran Všechovice defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.40

Tatran Všechovice attack 1.76 + Bzenec defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bzenec scores more
55%
level
20%
Tatran Všechovice scores more
25%

Bzenec at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bzenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Bzenec 3–2 Tatran Všechovice

Bzenec beat Tatran Všechovice 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie E on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Fotbalový Stadión Bzenec in Bzenec.