Bzenec 4–0 Strání: Result & Stats

Bzenec

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Strání

3/23/2024

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 18Fotbalový Stadión Bzenec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Bzenec48%

×Draw22%

Strání30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BzenecExpected goals in this matchStrání

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.48

Bzenec

1.93

Strání

1.48

Bzenec creates 30% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 54 away

2.30

creates per match

1.56

1.41

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Bzenec

2.30

Strání

1.56

allows per match

Bzenec

1.41

Strání

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bzenec+0.00on par

Strání+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bzenec ↓

Strání →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Bzenec or draw

70%

Bzenec or Strání

78%

Draw or Strání

52%

Winning margin

Bzenec wins by 2+

27%

Strání wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bzenec 1+ goals

85%

Bzenec 2+ goals

57%

Bzenec 3+ goals

30%

Strání 1+ goals

77%

Strání 2+ goals

43%

Strání 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bzenec (draw refunded)

62%

Strání (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bzenec at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

Strání away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bzenec attack 2.30 + Strání defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.93

Strání attack 1.56 + Bzenec defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bzenec scores more

48%

level

22%

Strání scores more

30%

Bzenec at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bzenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff