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Bzenec vs Kostelec na Hané — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Bzenec
Bzenec
CANC
12:30
Kostelec na Hané
Kostelec na Hané
10/19/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 12Fotbalový Stadión Bzenec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bzenec61%
×Draw20%
Kostelec na Hané19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bzenec
2.21
Kostelec na Hané
1.17

Bzenec creates 89% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bzenec
2.30
Kostelec na Hané
0.93

allows per match

Bzenec
1.41
Kostelec na Hané
2.13

finishing

Bzenec+0.00on par
Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bzenec ↓

Kostelec na Hané →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bzenec or draw
81%
Bzenec or Kostelec na Hané
80%
Draw or Kostelec na Hané
39%

Winning margin

Bzenec wins by 2+
38%
Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bzenec 1+ goals
89%
Bzenec 2+ goals
65%
Bzenec 3+ goals
38%
Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals
69%
Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals
33%
Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bzenec (draw refunded)
76%
Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bzenec at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

Kostelec na Hané away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bzenec attack 2.30 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kostelec na Hané attack 0.93 + Bzenec defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bzenec scores more
61%
level
20%
Kostelec na Hané scores more
19%

Bzenec at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bzenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bzenec host Kostelec na Hané

October 19, 2024: Bzenec take on Kostelec na Hané in 4. liga - Divizie E. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bzenec host Kostelec na Hané at Fotbalový Stadión Bzenec.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.