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Bzenec vs HFK Olomouc — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Bzenec
Bzenec
CANC
15:30
HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
6/20/20214. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 25Fotbalový Stadión Bzenec

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bzenec61%
×Draw19%
HFK Olomouc20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bzenec
2.38
HFK Olomouc
1.31

Bzenec creates 82% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bzenec
2.30
HFK Olomouc
1.21

allows per match

Bzenec
1.41
HFK Olomouc
2.45

finishing

Bzenec+0.00on par
HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bzenec ↓

HFK Olomouc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bzenec or draw
80%
Bzenec or HFK Olomouc
81%
Draw or HFK Olomouc
39%

Winning margin

Bzenec wins by 2+
39%
HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bzenec 1+ goals
91%
Bzenec 2+ goals
68%
Bzenec 3+ goals
42%
HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
73%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
38%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bzenec (draw refunded)
75%
HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bzenec at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.41 · 80 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bzenec attack 2.30 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.38

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Bzenec defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bzenec scores more
61%
level
19%
HFK Olomouc scores more
20%

Bzenec at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bzenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bzenec vs HFK Olomouc — Match Preview

Bzenec face HFK Olomouc on June 20, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie E fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bzenec host HFK Olomouc at Fotbalový Stadión Bzenec.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.