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Bytovia Bytów vs Stal Stalowa Wola — II Liga - East 2019

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
8/17/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 4Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bytovia Bytów43%
×Draw25%
Stal Stalowa Wola32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.52
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.29

Bytovia Bytów creates 18% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 52 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.57
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.21

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.37
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.48

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
68%
Bytovia Bytów or Stal Stalowa Wola
75%
Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola
57%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
21%
Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
78%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
45%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
20%
Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
72%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
37%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
57%
Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.21 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
43%
level
25%
Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
32%

Bytovia Bytów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Bytovia Bytów 4–1 Stal Stalowa Wola

Bytovia Bytów beat Stal Stalowa Wola 4-1 in II Liga - East on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Bytów.