Bytovia Bytów 1–0 Sokół Ostróda: Result & Stats

Bytovia Bytów

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sokół Ostróda

P. Giel 86'

11/22/2020

II Liga - East · Round 14Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bytovia Bytów52%

×Draw23%

Sokół Ostróda25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bytovia BytówExpected goals in this matchSokół Ostróda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.22

Bytovia Bytów

1.84

Sokół Ostróda

1.22

Bytovia Bytów creates 51% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

1.57

creates per match

1.06

1.37

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.57

Sokół Ostróda

1.06

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.37

Sokół Ostróda

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Sokół Ostróda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw

75%

Bytovia Bytów or Sokół Ostróda

77%

Draw or Sokół Ostróda

48%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

29%

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

84%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

55%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

28%

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals

70%

Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals

34%

Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

67%

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Sokół Ostróda away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.06 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more

52%

level

23%

Sokół Ostróda scores more

25%

Bytovia Bytów at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

K. Zalewski

55'

K. Bak

67'

Ł. Święty← K. Zalewski

67'

W. Kalinowski← K. Andrzejczak

86'

P. Giel

90+3'

M. Staniszewski

90'

M. Wrzesień← P. Giel

Bytovia

Sokół

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Giel

Sezonienk

Manager: A. Stawski

90'▲M. Wrzesień←▼P. Giel

Bytovia Bytów substitutes

Wrzesień

Manager: P. Jacek

67'▲Ł. Święty←▼K. Zalewski

67'▲W. Kalinowski←▼K. Andrzejczak

Sokół Ostróda substitutes

ŚwiętyKalinowski