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Bytovia Bytów vs Pogoń Siedlce — II Liga - East 2019

Bytovia Bytów
Bytovia Bytów
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
6/12/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 38Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Bytovia Bytów41%
×Draw24%
Pogoń Siedlce35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bytovia Bytów
1.58
Pogoń Siedlce
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 86 away

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.57
Pogoń Siedlce
1.52

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów
1.37
Pogoń Siedlce
1.58

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par
Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw
65%
Bytovia Bytów or Pogoń Siedlce
76%
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
59%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+
20%
Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals
79%
Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals
47%
Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals
21%
Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
77%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
42%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)
54%
Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more
41%
level
24%
Pogoń Siedlce scores more
35%

Bytovia Bytów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Bytovia Bytów 4–3 Pogoń Siedlce

Bytovia Bytów beat Pogoń Siedlce 4-3 in II Liga - East on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Bytów.