Bytovia Bytów 1–1 Elana Toruń: Result & Stats

Bytovia Bytów

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Elana Toruń

11/16/2019

II Liga - East · Round 18Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bytovia Bytów47%

×Draw25%

Elana Toruń28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bytovia BytówExpected goals in this matchElana Toruń

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.16

Bytovia Bytów

1.58

Elana Toruń

1.16

Bytovia Bytów creates 36% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

1.57

creates per match

0.94

1.37

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.57

Elana Toruń

0.94

allows per match

Bytovia Bytów

1.37

Elana Toruń

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bytovia Bytów+0.00on par

Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bytovia Bytów ↓

Elana Toruń →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bytovia Bytów or draw

72%

Bytovia Bytów or Elana Toruń

75%

Draw or Elana Toruń

53%

Winning margin

Bytovia Bytów wins by 2+

24%

Elana Toruń wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bytovia Bytów 1+ goals

79%

Bytovia Bytów 2+ goals

47%

Bytovia Bytów 3+ goals

21%

Elana Toruń 1+ goals

69%

Elana Toruń 2+ goals

32%

Elana Toruń 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bytovia Bytów (draw refunded)

63%

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bytovia Bytów at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

Elana Toruń away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bytovia Bytów attack 1.57 + Elana Toruń defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Elana Toruń attack 0.94 + Bytovia Bytów defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bytovia Bytów scores more

47%

level

25%

Elana Toruń scores more

28%

Bytovia Bytów at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bytovia Bytów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff