Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2–3 Ždírec nad Doubravou

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

FT

2 – 3

Ždírec nad Doubravou

9/14/2019

4. liga - Divizie D · Round 7Fotbalový stadion (Bystřice nad Pernštejnem)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem36%

×Draw23%

Ždírec nad Doubravou41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bystřice nad PernštejnemExpected goals in this matchŽdírec nad Doubravou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.66

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.54

Ždírec nad Doubravou

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 81 away

1.32

creates per match

0.95

2.37

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.32

Ždírec nad Doubravou

0.95

allows per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

2.37

Ždírec nad Doubravou

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem ↓

Ždírec nad Doubravou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or draw

59%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or Ždírec nad Doubravou

77%

Draw or Ždírec nad Doubravou

64%

Winning margin

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+

17%

Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals

79%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals

45%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals

20%

Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals

81%

Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals

49%

Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)

47%

Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.77 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.32 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 0.95 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more

36%

level

23%

Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more

41%

Ždírec nad Doubravou at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ždírec nad Doubravou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff