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Bystřice nad Pernštejnem vs Žďár nad Sázavou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
FT
2 – 2
Žďár nad Sázavou
Žďár nad Sázavou
9/28/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 9Fotbalový stadion (Bystřice nad Pernštejnem)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem32%
×Draw22%
Žďár nad Sázavou46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.61
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.96

Žďár nad Sázavou creates 22% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 84 away

creates per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.32
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.54

allows per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.37
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.90

finishing

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par
Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem ↓

Žďár nad Sázavou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or draw
54%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or Žďár nad Sázavou
78%
Draw or Žďár nad Sázavou
68%

Winning margin

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
15%
Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
80%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
48%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
22%
Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals
86%
Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals
58%
Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
41%
Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Žďár nad Sázavou away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.32 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.54 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
32%
level
22%
Žďár nad Sázavou scores more
46%

Žďár nad Sázavou at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Žďár nad Sázavou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2–2 Žďár nad Sázavou

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem and Žďár nad Sázavou drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion (Bystřice nad Pernštejnem).