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Bystřice nad Pernštejnem vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
FT
5 – 2
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
10/19/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 12Fotbalový stadion (Bystřice nad Pernštejnem)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem42%
×Draw22%
Stará Říše35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.83
Stará Říše
1.66

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem creates 10% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

creates per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.32
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.37
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or draw
65%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or Stará Říše
78%
Draw or Stará Říše
58%

Winning margin

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
23%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
84%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
54%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
28%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
81%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
49%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
54%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.32 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
42%
level
22%
Stará Říše scores more
35%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bystřice nad Pernštejnem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 5–2 Stará Říše

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem beat Stará Říše 5-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion (Bystřice nad Pernštejnem).