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Bystřice nad Pernštejnem vs Hodonín — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
FT
1 – 2
Hodonín
Hodonín
8/22/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 3Fotbalový stadion Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem14%
×Draw17%
Hodonín69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.03
Hodonín
2.50

Hodonín creates 143% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.32
Hodonín
2.63

allows per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.37
Hodonín
0.74

finishing

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par
Hodonín+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem ↓

Hodonín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or draw
31%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or Hodonín
83%
Draw or Hodonín
86%

Winning margin

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
5%
Hodonín wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
64%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
28%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
9%
Hodonín 1+ goals
92%
Hodonín 2+ goals
71%
Hodonín 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
17%
Hodonín (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Hodonín away — creates 2.63, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.32 + Hodonín defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.03

Hodonín attack 2.63 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
14%
level
17%
Hodonín scores more
69%

Hodonín at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hodonín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bystřice nad Pernštejnem vs Hodonín

Hodonín beat Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Bystřice nad Pernštejnem in Bystřice nad Pernštejnem.