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Bystřice nad Pernštejnem vs Břeclav — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
CANC
15:00
Břeclav
Břeclav
6/6/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 23Fotbalový stadion Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem39%
×Draw23%
Břeclav38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.73
Břeclav
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.32
Břeclav
1.03

allows per match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.37
Břeclav
2.14

finishing

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par
Břeclav+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem ↓

Břeclav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or draw
62%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem or Břeclav
77%
Draw or Břeclav
61%

Winning margin

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
20%
Břeclav wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
82%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
52%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
25%
Břeclav 1+ goals
82%
Břeclav 2+ goals
51%
Břeclav 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
51%
Břeclav (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

Břeclav away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.32 + Břeclav defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.73

Břeclav attack 1.03 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
39%
level
23%
Břeclav scores more
38%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bystřice nad Pernštejnem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem face Břeclav (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D returns with Bystřice nad Pernštejnem hosting Břeclav. Match starts June 6, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem host Břeclav at Fotbalový stadion Bystřice nad Pernštejnem.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.