Bylis 4–0 Turbina Cërrik: Result & Stats

Bylis

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Turbina Cërrik

9/25/2021

1st Division · Round 3Stadiumi Adush Muça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Bylis68%

×Draw20%

Turbina Cërrik12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BylisExpected goals in this matchTurbina Cërrik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.68

Bylis

1.99

Turbina Cërrik

0.68

Bylis creates 193% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 52 away

2.06

creates per match

0.83

0.53

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Bylis

2.06

Turbina Cërrik

0.83

allows per match

Bylis

0.53

Turbina Cërrik

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bylis+0.00on par

Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bylis ↓

Turbina Cërrik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bylis or draw

88%

Bylis or Turbina Cërrik

80%

Draw or Turbina Cërrik

32%

Winning margin

Bylis wins by 2+

43%

Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bylis 1+ goals

86%

Bylis 2+ goals

59%

Bylis 3+ goals

32%

Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals

49%

Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals

15%

Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bylis (draw refunded)

85%

Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bylis at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.53 · 32 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bylis attack 2.06 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.99

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Bylis defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bylis scores more

68%

level

20%

Turbina Cërrik scores more

12%

Bylis at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bylis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff