Bylis 0–1 Tirana: Result & Stats | Superliga

Bylis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tirana

Rafa Freitas 63'

1/14/2026

Superliga · Round 19Stadiumi Adush Muca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Bylis35%

×Draw29%

Tirana36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BylisExpected goals in this matchTirana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.14

Bylis

1.12

Tirana

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 142 away

1.12

creates per match

1.31

0.96

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Bylis

1.12

Tirana

1.31

allows per match

Bylis

0.96

Tirana

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bylis+0.00on par

Tirana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bylis ↓

Tirana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bylis or draw

64%

Bylis or Tirana

71%

Draw or Tirana

65%

Winning margin

Bylis wins by 2+

14%

Tirana wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bylis 1+ goals

67%

Bylis 2+ goals

31%

Bylis 3+ goals

10%

Tirana 1+ goals

68%

Tirana 2+ goals

32%

Tirana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bylis (draw refunded)

49%

Tirana (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bylis at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.96 · 92 matches

Tirana away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bylis attack 1.12 + Tirana defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Tirana attack 1.31 + Bylis defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bylis scores more

35%

level

29%

Tirana scores more

36%

Tirana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tirana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

A. J. Peralta Vernaza← Bruno

45'

H. Marku

63'

Rafa Freitas

67'

L. Vera

70'

D. Mehmeti← R. Xhixha

72'

R. Abdullahi← A. Pergjoni

72'

Walisson Nem← K. Mouctar

74'

J. Cortes

84'

S. Emini← M. Ayodeji

84'

H. Sulovari← O. Adeduro

84'

S. Vogli← F. Alvarez

88'

D. Halili← P. Myslovic

90'

90+5'

Bylis

Tirana

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Gentjan Mezani

11'▲A. J. Peralta Vernaza←▼Bruno

72'▲R. Abdullahi←▼A. Pergjoni

72'▲Walisson Nem←▼K. Mouctar

84'▲S. Emini←▼M. Ayodeji

84'▲H. Sulovari←▼O. Adeduro

Bylis substitutes

BeqajMarkuAbdullahiEminiVernazaHodoSulovariGabrielNemCamara

Manager: Ardijan Nuhiji

70'▲D. Mehmeti←▼R. Xhixha

84'▲S. Vogli←▼F. Alvarez

88'▲D. Halili←▼P. Myslovic

Tirana substitutes

KukaKarabeciHaliliTareVogliMihanaDokaFalayeMisjaMehmeti

Superliga: Bylis 0–1 Tirana

Tirana beat Bylis 1-0 in Superliga on January 14, 2026.

Goals: Rafa Freitas (63').

The match was played at Stadiumi Adush Muca in Ballsh.

Bylis vs Tirana — Superliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Superliga: Bylis 0–1 Tirana