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Bylis vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Bylis
Bylis
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
4/16/20221st Division1st Division · Round 27Stadiumi Adush Muça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Bylis65%
×Draw24%
Tërbuni Pukë11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bylis
1.65
Tërbuni Pukë
0.52

Bylis creates 217% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 39 away

creates per match

Bylis
2.06
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Bylis
0.53
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Bylis+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bylis ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bylis or draw
89%
Bylis or Tërbuni Pukë
76%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
35%

Winning margin

Bylis wins by 2+
37%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bylis 1+ goals
81%
Bylis 2+ goals
49%
Bylis 3+ goals
23%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
41%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
10%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bylis (draw refunded)
85%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bylis at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.53 · 32 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bylis attack 2.06 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.65

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Bylis defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bylis scores more
65%
level
24%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
11%

Bylis at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bylis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Bylis 3–0 Tërbuni Pukë

Bylis beat Tërbuni Pukë 3-0 in 1st Division on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Adush Muça in Ballsh.