Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bylis vs Shkumbini Peqin — 1st Division 2019

Bylis
Bylis
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Shkumbini Peqin
Shkumbini Peqin
4/2/20221st Division1st Division · Round 25Stadiumi Adush Muça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bylis78%
×Draw15%
Shkumbini Peqin7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bylis
2.50
Shkumbini Peqin
0.63

Bylis creates 297% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bylis
2.06
Shkumbini Peqin
0.73

allows per match

Bylis
0.53
Shkumbini Peqin
2.93

finishing

Bylis+0.00on par
Shkumbini Peqin+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bylis ↓

Shkumbini Peqin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bylis or draw
93%
Bylis or Shkumbini Peqin
85%
Draw or Shkumbini Peqin
22%

Winning margin

Bylis wins by 2+
55%
Shkumbini Peqin wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bylis 1+ goals
92%
Bylis 2+ goals
71%
Bylis 3+ goals
45%
Shkumbini Peqin 1+ goals
47%
Shkumbini Peqin 2+ goals
13%
Shkumbini Peqin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bylis (draw refunded)
91%
Shkumbini Peqin (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bylis at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.53 · 32 matches

Shkumbini Peqin away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bylis attack 2.06 + Shkumbini Peqin defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.50

Shkumbini Peqin attack 0.73 + Bylis defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Bylis scores more
78%
level
15%
Shkumbini Peqin scores more
7%

Bylis at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Bylis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Bylis 4–0 Shkumbini Peqin

Bylis beat Shkumbini Peqin 4-0 in 1st Division on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Adush Muça in Ballsh.