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Bylis vs Korabi Peshkopi — 1st Division 2019

Bylis
Bylis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Korabi Peshkopi
Korabi Peshkopi
9/28/20231st Division1st Division · Round 5Stadiumi Adush Muçaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Bylis60%
×Draw24%
Korabi Peshkopi16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bylis
1.68
Korabi Peshkopi
0.73

Bylis creates 130% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 103 away

creates per match

Bylis
2.06
Korabi Peshkopi
0.93

allows per match

Bylis
0.53
Korabi Peshkopi
1.29

finishing

Bylis+0.00on par
Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bylis ↓

Korabi Peshkopi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bylis or draw
84%
Bylis or Korabi Peshkopi
76%
Draw or Korabi Peshkopi
40%

Winning margin

Bylis wins by 2+
34%
Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bylis 1+ goals
81%
Bylis 2+ goals
50%
Bylis 3+ goals
24%
Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals
52%
Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals
17%
Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bylis (draw refunded)
79%
Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bylis at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.53 · 32 matches

Korabi Peshkopi away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.29 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bylis attack 2.06 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.68

Korabi Peshkopi attack 0.93 + Bylis defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bylis scores more
60%
level
24%
Korabi Peshkopi scores more
16%

Bylis at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bylis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Bylis 1–0 Korabi Peshkopi

Bylis beat Korabi Peshkopi 1-0 in 1st Division on September 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Adush Muçaj in Ballsh.