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Bylis vs Erzeni Shijak — Superliga 2018

Bylis
Bylis
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Erzeni Shijak
Erzeni Shijak
9/30/2022SuperligaSuperliga · Round 6Stadiumi Adush Muça

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bylis44%
×Draw28%
Erzeni Shijak28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bylis
1.30
Erzeni Shijak
0.98

Bylis creates 33% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bylis
1.04
Erzeni Shijak
1.00

allows per match

Bylis
0.97
Erzeni Shijak
1.56

finishing

Bylis+0.00on par
Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bylis ↓

Erzeni Shijak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bylis or draw
72%
Bylis or Erzeni Shijak
72%
Draw or Erzeni Shijak
56%

Winning margin

Bylis wins by 2+
20%
Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bylis 1+ goals
73%
Bylis 2+ goals
37%
Bylis 3+ goals
14%
Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals
62%
Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals
26%
Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bylis (draw refunded)
61%
Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bylis at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.97 · 90 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bylis attack 1.04 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.30

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.00 + Bylis defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bylis scores more
44%
level
28%
Erzeni Shijak scores more
28%

Bylis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bylis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Bylis 4–1 Erzeni Shijak

Bylis beat Erzeni Shijak 4-1 in Superliga on September 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Adush Muça in Ballsh.