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Bylis vs Besa Kavajë — 1st Division 2019

Bylis
Bylis
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Besa Kavajë
Besa Kavajë
3/16/20241st Division1st Division · Round 25Stadiumi Adush Muçaj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Bylis59%
×Draw23%
Besa Kavajë18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bylis
1.76
Besa Kavajë
0.86

Bylis creates 105% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 100 away

creates per match

Bylis
2.06
Besa Kavajë
1.20

allows per match

Bylis
0.53
Besa Kavajë
1.46

finishing

Bylis+0.00on par
Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bylis ↓

Besa Kavajë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bylis or draw
82%
Bylis or Besa Kavajë
77%
Draw or Besa Kavajë
41%

Winning margin

Bylis wins by 2+
33%
Besa Kavajë wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bylis 1+ goals
83%
Bylis 2+ goals
52%
Bylis 3+ goals
26%
Besa Kavajë 1+ goals
58%
Besa Kavajë 2+ goals
21%
Besa Kavajë 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bylis (draw refunded)
76%
Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bylis at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.53 · 32 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bylis attack 2.06 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.76

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Bylis defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bylis scores more
59%
level
23%
Besa Kavajë scores more
18%

Bylis at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bylis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bylis vs Besa Kavajë

Bylis beat Besa Kavajë 2-0 in 1st Division on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Adush Muçaj in Ballsh.