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Byåsen vs Steinkjer — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Byåsen
Byåsen
FT
3 – 3
Steinkjer
Steinkjer
5/13/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 6Byåsen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Byåsen75%
×Draw13%
Steinkjer11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Byåsen
3.26
Steinkjer
1.23

Byåsen creates 165% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Byåsen
2.94
Steinkjer
1.50

allows per match

Byåsen
0.97
Steinkjer
3.58

finishing

Byåsen+0.00on par
Steinkjer+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Byåsen ↓

Steinkjer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Byåsen or draw
89%
Byåsen or Steinkjer
87%
Draw or Steinkjer
25%

Winning margin

Byåsen wins by 2+
57%
Steinkjer wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Byåsen 1+ goals
96%
Byåsen 2+ goals
83%
Byåsen 3+ goals
61%
Steinkjer 1+ goals
71%
Steinkjer 2+ goals
35%
Steinkjer 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Byåsen (draw refunded)
87%
Steinkjer (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Byåsen at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

Steinkjer away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Byåsen attack 2.94 + Steinkjer defence 3.58 → ÷2 → 3.26

Steinkjer attack 1.50 + Byåsen defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Byåsen scores more
75%
level
13%
Steinkjer scores more
11%

Byåsen at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Byåsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Byåsen 3–3 Steinkjer

Byåsen and Steinkjer drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Byåsen Arena in Trondheim.