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Byåsen vs Kristiansund II — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Byåsen
Byåsen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
P. Johansen 82'
M. Romsdalen 77'
P. S. Jamehdar 52'
6/17/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 10Byåsen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Byåsen68%
×Draw17%
Kristiansund II15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Byåsen
2.65
Kristiansund II
1.17

Byåsen creates 126% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Byåsen
2.94
Kristiansund II
1.38

allows per match

Byåsen
0.97
Kristiansund II
2.35

finishing

Byåsen+0.00on par
Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Byåsen ↓

Kristiansund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Byåsen or draw
85%
Byåsen or Kristiansund II
83%
Draw or Kristiansund II
32%

Winning margin

Byåsen wins by 2+
47%
Kristiansund II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Byåsen 1+ goals
93%
Byåsen 2+ goals
74%
Byåsen 3+ goals
48%
Kristiansund II 1+ goals
69%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
33%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Byåsen (draw refunded)
82%
Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Byåsen at home — creates 2.94, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Byåsen attack 2.94 + Kristiansund II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.65

Kristiansund II attack 1.38 + Byåsen defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Byåsen scores more
68%
level
17%
Kristiansund II scores more
15%

Byåsen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Byåsen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
P. S. Jamehdar
77'
M. Romsdalen
82'
P. Johansen
86'
B. Brevik
86'
B. Brevik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Byåsen 3–0 Kristiansund II

Byåsen beat Kristiansund II 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on June 17, 2023.

Goals: P. S. Jamehdar (52'), M. Romsdalen (77'), P. Johansen (82').

The match was played at Byåsen Arena in Trondheim.