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BW Lohne vs SSV Jeddeloh — Friendlies Clubs 2026

BW Lohne
BW Lohne
FT
3 – 2
SSV Jeddeloh
SSV Jeddeloh
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasen Heinz-Dettmer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

BW Lohne28%
×Draw18%
SSV Jeddeloh53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BW Lohne
1.98
SSV Jeddeloh
2.73

SSV Jeddeloh creates 38% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

BW Lohne
1.67
SSV Jeddeloh
2.90

allows per match

BW Lohne
2.56
SSV Jeddeloh
2.30

finishing

BW Lohne+0.00on par
SSV Jeddeloh+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BW Lohne ↓

SSV Jeddeloh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

BW Lohne or draw
47%
BW Lohne or SSV Jeddeloh
82%
Draw or SSV Jeddeloh
72%

Winning margin

BW Lohne wins by 2+
14%
SSV Jeddeloh wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

BW Lohne 1+ goals
86%
BW Lohne 2+ goals
59%
BW Lohne 3+ goals
31%
SSV Jeddeloh 1+ goals
93%
SSV Jeddeloh 2+ goals
75%
SSV Jeddeloh 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

BW Lohne (draw refunded)
34%
SSV Jeddeloh (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BW Lohne at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

SSV Jeddeloh away — creates 2.90, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BW Lohne attack 1.67 + SSV Jeddeloh defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.98

SSV Jeddeloh attack 2.90 + BW Lohne defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

BW Lohne scores more
28%
level
18%
SSV Jeddeloh scores more
53%

SSV Jeddeloh at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SSV Jeddeloh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BW Lohne vs SSV Jeddeloh

BW Lohne beat SSV Jeddeloh 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasen Heinz-Dettmer-Stadion in Oldenburg.