BVSC 0–0 Tiszakecske FC: Result & Stats

BVSC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tiszakecske FC

11/26/2023

League #272 · Round 16Szőnyi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

BVSC53%

×Draw24%

Tiszakecske FC24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BVSCExpected goals in this matchTiszakecske FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.08

BVSC

1.73

Tiszakecske FC

1.08

BVSC creates 60% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

1.30

0.86

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

BVSC

1.57

Tiszakecske FC

1.30

allows per match

BVSC

0.86

Tiszakecske FC

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BVSC+0.00on par

Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BVSC ↓

Tiszakecske FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

BVSC or draw

76%

BVSC or Tiszakecske FC

76%

Draw or Tiszakecske FC

47%

Winning margin

BVSC wins by 2+

29%

Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

BVSC 1+ goals

82%

BVSC 2+ goals

52%

BVSC 3+ goals

25%

Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals

66%

Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals

29%

Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

BVSC (draw refunded)

69%

Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BVSC at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Tiszakecske FC away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BVSC attack 1.57 + Tiszakecske FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

Tiszakecske FC attack 1.30 + BVSC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

BVSC scores more

53%

level

24%

Tiszakecske FC scores more

24%

BVSC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "BVSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Kiraly

67'

N. Mitrović← P. Kelemen

77'

A. Torvund← B. Gyurján

77'

C. Erdei← B. Zamostny

84'

M. Tóth← R. Vernes

85'

R. Csosz

89'

G. Májer← P. Poór

90'

A. Winkler← L. Bertus

BVSC

Tiszakecske

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Á. Kincses

67'▲N. Mitrović←▼P. Kelemen

84'▲M. Tóth←▼R. Vernes

89'▲G. Májer←▼P. Poór

BVSC substitutes

MitrovićTóthMájerKovácsLénártNagyDibuszTóthBenkő-BíróHorváth

Manager: G. Toldi

77'▲A. Torvund←▼B. Gyurján

77'▲C. Erdei←▼B. Zamostny

90'▲A. Winkler←▼L. Bertus

Tiszakecske FC substitutes

TorvundErdeiWinklerSzekérKryvotsiukGvishianiBenczeProkopPongráczMáté