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BVSC vs Salgótarján — NB III - Northeast 2019

BVSC
BVSC
FT
5 – 1
Salgótarján
Salgótarján
11/29/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 20Szőnyi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BVSC76%
×Draw14%
Salgótarján10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BVSC
2.79
Salgótarján
0.91

BVSC creates 207% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

BVSC
2.89
Salgótarján
1.16

allows per match

BVSC
0.66
Salgótarján
2.68

finishing

BVSC+0.00on par
Salgótarján+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BVSC ↓

Salgótarján →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

BVSC or draw
90%
BVSC or Salgótarján
86%
Draw or Salgótarján
24%

Winning margin

BVSC wins by 2+
55%
Salgótarján wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

BVSC 1+ goals
94%
BVSC 2+ goals
76%
BVSC 3+ goals
52%
Salgótarján 1+ goals
60%
Salgótarján 2+ goals
23%
Salgótarján 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

BVSC (draw refunded)
89%
Salgótarján (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BVSC at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.66 · 38 matches

Salgótarján away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BVSC attack 2.89 + Salgótarján defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.79

Salgótarján attack 1.16 + BVSC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

BVSC scores more
76%
level
14%
Salgótarján scores more
10%

BVSC at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "BVSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: BVSC 5–1 Salgótarján

BVSC beat Salgótarján 5-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Szőnyi úti Stadion in Budapest.