BVSC 3–1 Sajóbábony Vegyész: Result & Stats

BVSC

FT

3 – 1

Sajóbábony Vegyész

5/2/2021

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 33Szőnyi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BVSC84%

×Draw11%

Sajóbábony Vegyész6%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BVSCExpected goals in this matchSajóbábony Vegyész

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.26

0.78

BVSC

3.26

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.78

BVSC creates 318% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

2.89

creates per match

0.89

0.66

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

BVSC

2.89

Sajóbábony Vegyész

0.89

allows per match

BVSC

0.66

Sajóbábony Vegyész

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BVSC+0.00on par

Sajóbábony Vegyész+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BVSC ↓

Sajóbábony Vegyész →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

BVSC or draw

94%

BVSC or Sajóbábony Vegyész

89%

Draw or Sajóbábony Vegyész

16%

Winning margin

BVSC wins by 2+

66%

Sajóbábony Vegyész wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

BVSC 1+ goals

96%

BVSC 2+ goals

83%

BVSC 3+ goals

61%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 1+ goals

54%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 2+ goals

18%

Sajóbábony Vegyész 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

BVSC (draw refunded)

94%

Sajóbábony Vegyész (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BVSC at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.66 · 38 matches

Sajóbábony Vegyész away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BVSC attack 2.89 + Sajóbábony Vegyész defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 3.26

Sajóbábony Vegyész attack 0.89 + BVSC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

BVSC scores more

84%

level

11%

Sajóbábony Vegyész scores more

6%

BVSC at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "BVSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff