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BVSC vs Kozarmisleny FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

BVSC
BVSC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kozarmisleny FC
Kozarmisleny FC
B. Zamostny 13'
1/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

BVSC41%
×Draw24%
Kozarmisleny FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BVSC
1.57
Kozarmisleny FC
1.42

BVSC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

BVSC
1.00
Kozarmisleny FC
1.64

allows per match

BVSC
1.20
Kozarmisleny FC
2.14

finishing

BVSC+0.00on par
Kozarmisleny FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BVSC ↓

Kozarmisleny FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

BVSC or draw
65%
BVSC or Kozarmisleny FC
76%
Draw or Kozarmisleny FC
59%

Winning margin

BVSC wins by 2+
20%
Kozarmisleny FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

BVSC 1+ goals
79%
BVSC 2+ goals
46%
BVSC 3+ goals
21%
Kozarmisleny FC 1+ goals
76%
Kozarmisleny FC 2+ goals
41%
Kozarmisleny FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

BVSC (draw refunded)
54%
Kozarmisleny FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BVSC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Kozarmisleny FC away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BVSC attack 1.00 + Kozarmisleny FC defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kozarmisleny FC attack 1.64 + BVSC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

BVSC scores more
41%
level
24%
Kozarmisleny FC scores more
35%

BVSC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BVSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
B. Zamostny
BVSC
Kozarmisleny
J. Csábi
Manager: J. Csábi
Z. Aczél
Manager: Z. Aczél

Friendlies Clubs: BVSC 0–1 Kozarmisleny FC

Kozarmisleny FC beat BVSC 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 17, 2026.

Goals: B. Zamostny (13').