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BVSC vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

BVSC
BVSC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
R. Vernes 54'
M. Potor 15' (OG)
4/23/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 33Szőnyi úti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

BVSC62%
×Draw20%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BVSC
2.21
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.09

BVSC creates 103% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

BVSC
2.89
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

BVSC
0.66
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

BVSC+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BVSC ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

BVSC or draw
82%
BVSC or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
80%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
38%

Winning margin

BVSC wins by 2+
39%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BVSC 1+ goals
89%
BVSC 2+ goals
65%
BVSC 3+ goals
38%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
66%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
30%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

BVSC (draw refunded)
78%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BVSC at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.66 · 38 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BVSC attack 2.89 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.21

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + BVSC defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

BVSC scores more
62%
level
20%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
18%

BVSC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "BVSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
M. PotorOwn goal
54'
R. Vernes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BVSC vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE

BVSC beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 23, 2023.

Goals: M. Potor (15' o.g.), R. Vernes (54').

The match was played at Szőnyi úti Stadion in Budapest.