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Buzanada vs Unión Sur Yaiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Buzanada
Buzanada
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
10/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 7Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Buzanada44%
×Draw28%
Unión Sur Yaiza28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buzanada
1.33
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.99

Buzanada creates 34% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 65 away

creates per match

Buzanada
1.35
Unión Sur Yaiza
0.88

allows per match

Buzanada
1.09
Unión Sur Yaiza
1.32

finishing

Buzanada+0.00on par
Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buzanada ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Buzanada or draw
72%
Buzanada or Unión Sur Yaiza
72%
Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza
56%

Winning margin

Buzanada wins by 2+
21%
Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Buzanada 1+ goals
74%
Buzanada 2+ goals
38%
Buzanada 3+ goals
15%
Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
63%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
26%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Buzanada (draw refunded)
61%
Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buzanada at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buzanada attack 1.35 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Buzanada defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Buzanada scores more
44%
level
28%
Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
28%

Buzanada at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Buzanada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Buzanada 2–2 Unión Sur Yaiza

Buzanada and Unión Sur Yaiza drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello in Buzanada.