Buzanada 1–1 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

Buzanada

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Úrsula

10/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Buzanada47%

×Draw27%

Santa Úrsula26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BuzanadaExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.00

Buzanada

1.44

Santa Úrsula

1.00

Buzanada creates 44% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 92 away

1.35

creates per match

0.90

1.09

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Buzanada

1.35

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

Buzanada

1.09

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buzanada+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buzanada ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Buzanada or draw

74%

Buzanada or Santa Úrsula

73%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

53%

Winning margin

Buzanada wins by 2+

23%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Buzanada 1+ goals

76%

Buzanada 2+ goals

42%

Buzanada 3+ goals

18%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

63%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

26%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Buzanada (draw refunded)

64%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Buzanada at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Buzanada attack 1.35 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Buzanada defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Buzanada scores more

47%

level

27%

Santa Úrsula scores more

26%

Buzanada at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Buzanada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff