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Buzanada vs Los Llanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Buzanada
Buzanada
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Los Llanos
Los Llanos
11/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 11Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Buzanada57%
×Draw25%
Los Llanos18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buzanada
1.58
Los Llanos
0.75

Buzanada creates 111% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Buzanada
1.35
Los Llanos
0.41

allows per match

Buzanada
1.09
Los Llanos
1.82

finishing

Buzanada+0.00on par
Los Llanos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buzanada ↓

Los Llanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Buzanada or draw
82%
Buzanada or Los Llanos
75%
Draw or Los Llanos
43%

Winning margin

Buzanada wins by 2+
31%
Los Llanos wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Buzanada 1+ goals
79%
Buzanada 2+ goals
47%
Buzanada 3+ goals
21%
Los Llanos 1+ goals
53%
Los Llanos 2+ goals
17%
Los Llanos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Buzanada (draw refunded)
76%
Los Llanos (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buzanada at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Los Llanos away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buzanada attack 1.35 + Los Llanos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Los Llanos attack 0.41 + Buzanada defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Buzanada scores more
57%
level
25%
Los Llanos scores more
18%

Buzanada at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Buzanada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Buzanada 3 – 1 Los Llanos

Buzanada beat Los Llanos 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello in Buzanada.