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Buzanada vs Las Palmas III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Buzanada
Buzanada
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas III
Las Palmas III
8/31/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Buzanada43%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas III30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buzanada
1.33
Las Palmas III
1.07

Buzanada creates 24% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 59 away

creates per match

Buzanada
1.35
Las Palmas III
1.05

allows per match

Buzanada
1.09
Las Palmas III
1.32

finishing

Buzanada+0.00on par
Las Palmas III+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buzanada ↓

Las Palmas III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Buzanada or draw
70%
Buzanada or Las Palmas III
73%
Draw or Las Palmas III
57%

Winning margin

Buzanada wins by 2+
20%
Las Palmas III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Buzanada 1+ goals
74%
Buzanada 2+ goals
38%
Buzanada 3+ goals
15%
Las Palmas III 1+ goals
66%
Las Palmas III 2+ goals
29%
Las Palmas III 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Buzanada (draw refunded)
59%
Las Palmas III (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buzanada at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Las Palmas III away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buzanada attack 1.35 + Las Palmas III defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Las Palmas III attack 1.05 + Buzanada defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Buzanada scores more
43%
level
27%
Las Palmas III scores more
30%

Buzanada at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Buzanada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Buzanada 2–1 Las Palmas III

Buzanada beat Las Palmas III 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello in Buzanada.