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Buzanada vs Lanzarote — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Buzanada
Buzanada
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lanzarote
Lanzarote
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 31Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Buzanada40%
×Draw27%
Lanzarote33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buzanada
1.31
Lanzarote
1.15

Buzanada creates 14% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 108 away

creates per match

Buzanada
1.35
Lanzarote
1.20

allows per match

Buzanada
1.09
Lanzarote
1.28

finishing

Buzanada+0.00on par
Lanzarote+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buzanada ↓

Lanzarote →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Buzanada or draw
67%
Buzanada or Lanzarote
73%
Draw or Lanzarote
60%

Winning margin

Buzanada wins by 2+
18%
Lanzarote wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Buzanada 1+ goals
73%
Buzanada 2+ goals
38%
Buzanada 3+ goals
14%
Lanzarote 1+ goals
68%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
32%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Buzanada (draw refunded)
55%
Lanzarote (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buzanada at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Lanzarote away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buzanada attack 1.35 + Lanzarote defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lanzarote attack 1.20 + Buzanada defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Buzanada scores more
40%
level
27%
Lanzarote scores more
33%

Buzanada at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Buzanada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buzanada vs Lanzarote

Lanzarote beat Buzanada 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello in Buzanada.