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Buzanada vs Güímar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Buzanada
Buzanada
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Güímar
Güímar
11/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Buzanada59%
×Draw23%
Güímar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buzanada
1.82
Güímar
0.89

Buzanada creates 104% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 28 away

creates per match

Buzanada
1.35
Güímar
0.68

allows per match

Buzanada
1.09
Güímar
2.29

finishing

Buzanada+0.00on par
Güímar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buzanada ↓

Güímar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Buzanada or draw
82%
Buzanada or Güímar
77%
Draw or Güímar
41%

Winning margin

Buzanada wins by 2+
34%
Güímar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Buzanada 1+ goals
84%
Buzanada 2+ goals
54%
Buzanada 3+ goals
27%
Güímar 1+ goals
59%
Güímar 2+ goals
22%
Güímar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Buzanada (draw refunded)
77%
Güímar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buzanada at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Güímar away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buzanada attack 1.35 + Güímar defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.82

Güímar attack 0.68 + Buzanada defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Buzanada scores more
59%
level
23%
Güímar scores more
18%

Buzanada at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Buzanada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Buzanada 2–1 Güímar

Buzanada beat Güímar 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 13, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello in Buzanada.