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Buzanada vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Buzanada
Buzanada
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 5Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Buzanada37%
×Draw29%
Atlético Paso34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buzanada
1.17
Atlético Paso
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 59 away

creates per match

Buzanada
1.35
Atlético Paso
1.12

allows per match

Buzanada
1.09
Atlético Paso
0.98

finishing

Buzanada+0.00on par
Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buzanada ↓

Atlético Paso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Buzanada or draw
66%
Buzanada or Atlético Paso
71%
Draw or Atlético Paso
63%

Winning margin

Buzanada wins by 2+
16%
Atlético Paso wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Buzanada 1+ goals
69%
Buzanada 2+ goals
33%
Buzanada 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Paso 1+ goals
67%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
30%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Buzanada (draw refunded)
52%
Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buzanada at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buzanada attack 1.35 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.17

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Buzanada defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Buzanada scores more
37%
level
29%
Atlético Paso scores more
34%

Buzanada at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Buzanada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Buzanada 1–2 Atlético Paso

Atlético Paso beat Buzanada 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Clementina de Bello in Buzanada.