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Buxton vs Ashton United — League #59 2026

Buxton
Buxton
CANC
14:00
Ashton United
Ashton United
4/24/2021League #59League #59 · Northern - 39The Silverlands

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Buxton56%
×Draw20%
Ashton United24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buxton
2.33
Ashton United
1.50

Buxton creates 55% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Buxton
2.00
Ashton United
1.67

allows per match

Buxton
1.33
Ashton United
2.67

finishing

Buxton+0.00on par
Ashton United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxton ↓

Ashton United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Buxton or draw
76%
Buxton or Ashton United
80%
Draw or Ashton United
44%

Winning margin

Buxton wins by 2+
35%
Ashton United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Buxton 1+ goals
90%
Buxton 2+ goals
67%
Buxton 3+ goals
41%
Ashton United 1+ goals
78%
Ashton United 2+ goals
44%
Ashton United 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Buxton (draw refunded)
70%
Ashton United (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxton at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Ashton United away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxton attack 2.00 + Ashton United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Ashton United attack 1.67 + Buxton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Buxton scores more
56%
level
20%
Ashton United scores more
24%

Buxton at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Buxton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Buxton vs Ashton United — Match Preview

Buxton face Ashton United on April 24, 2021 in this League #59 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Buxton host Ashton United at The Silverlands.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.