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Buxoro vs Surkhon — Super League 2026

Buxoro
Buxoro
Preview
15:00
Surkhon
Surkhon
10/23/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25
Big match
39%
Buxoro
model favours
39%28%33%
1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Buxoro39%
×Draw28%
Surkhon33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buxoro
1.26
Surkhon
1.14

Buxoro creates 11% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 97 away

creates per match

Buxoro
0.90
Surkhon
0.84

allows per match

Buxoro
1.44
Surkhon
1.62

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par
Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Surkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw
67%
Buxoro or Surkhon
72%
Draw or Surkhon
61%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+
17%
Surkhon wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals
72%
Buxoro 2+ goals
36%
Buxoro 3+ goals
13%
Surkhon 1+ goals
68%
Surkhon 2+ goals
32%
Surkhon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)
54%
Surkhon (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Surkhon away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.62 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 0.90 + Surkhon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.26

Surkhon attack 0.84 + Buxoro defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Buxoro scores more
39%
level
28%
Surkhon scores more
33%

Buxoro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Buxoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Buxoro
WLWWL
Surkhon
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Buxoro host Surkhon

October 23, 2026: Buxoro take on Surkhon in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.