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Buxoro vs Shortan — Pro League A 2026

Buxoro
Buxoro
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shortan
Shortan
10/3/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Buxoro55%
×Draw25%
Shortan20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buxoro
1.63
Shortan
0.88

Buxoro creates 85% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

Buxoro
1.93
Shortan
1.11

allows per match

Buxoro
0.64
Shortan
1.33

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par
Shortan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Shortan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw
80%
Buxoro or Shortan
75%
Draw or Shortan
45%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+
30%
Shortan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals
80%
Buxoro 2+ goals
48%
Buxoro 3+ goals
22%
Shortan 1+ goals
59%
Shortan 2+ goals
22%
Shortan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)
73%
Shortan (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Shortan away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 1.93 + Shortan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.63

Shortan attack 1.11 + Buxoro defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Buxoro scores more
55%
level
25%
Shortan scores more
20%

Buxoro at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Buxoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Buxoro 3–0 Shortan

Buxoro beat Shortan 3-0 in Pro League A on October 3, 2024.