Buxoro 0–1 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats | Super League

Buxoro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pakhtakor

D. Ćeran 90+6'

10/29/2023

Super League · Round 23Buxoro Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Buxoro20%

×Draw25%

Pakhtakor55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BuxoroExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.65

Buxoro

0.89

Pakhtakor

1.65

Pakhtakor creates 85% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 99 away

0.90

creates per match

1.85

1.44

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Buxoro

0.90

Pakhtakor

1.85

allows per match

Buxoro

1.44

Pakhtakor

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw

45%

Buxoro or Pakhtakor

75%

Draw or Pakhtakor

80%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+

7%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals

59%

Buxoro 2+ goals

22%

Buxoro 3+ goals

6%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

81%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

49%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)

27%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.88 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 0.90 + Pakhtakor defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Pakhtakor attack 1.85 + Buxoro defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Buxoro scores more

20%

level

25%

Pakhtakor scores more

55%

Pakhtakor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. Kayumov

28'

D. Ortikboev

40'

F. Sayfiyev

46'

S. Norxonov← A. Qayumov

46'

P. Banaszak← P. Kholdorkhonov

56'

J. Kholturayev← A. Tursunpolatov

65'

D. Ćeran← S. Sobirkhojaev

67'

A. Stanisavljević← V. Nihaev

67'

B. Kamolov← M. Rahimov

68'

D. CeranGoal Disallowed - Foul

75'

A. Turgunboev

75'

D. Juraev

84'

L. Kukic

87'

M. Jumaev← I. Pulatov

90+6'

D. Ćeran

Buxoro

Pakhtakor

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Fuzaylov

46'▲S. Norxonov←▼A. Qayumov

56'▲J. Kholturayev←▼A. Tursunpolatov

67'▲A. Stanisavljević←▼V. Nihaev

67'▲B. Kamolov←▼M. Rahimov

87'▲M. Jumaev←▼I. Pulatov

Buxoro substitutes

NorxonovKholturayevStanisavljevićKamolovJumaevOtakhonovUbaydullaevIminovKabuldjanov

Manager: M. Shatskikh

46'▲P. Banaszak←▼P. Kholdorkhonov

65'▲D. Ćeran←▼S. Sobirkhojaev

Pakhtakor substitutes

BanaszakĆeranKhamdamovSaitovTursunovMerkO'rinboyevSteenvoordenKuvvatov