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Buxoro vs Olimpik-Mobiuz — Pro League A 2026

Buxoro
Buxoro
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Olimpik-Mobiuz
Olimpik-Mobiuz
F. Ikic 68', 45+3', 28'
D. Begic 47'
Unknown 82' (OG)
5/10/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Buxoro58%
×Draw23%
Olimpik-Mobiuz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buxoro
1.81
Olimpik-Mobiuz
0.91

Buxoro creates 99% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

creates per match

Buxoro
1.93
Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.17

allows per match

Buxoro
0.64
Olimpik-Mobiuz
1.70

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par
Olimpik-Mobiuz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Olimpik-Mobiuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw
81%
Buxoro or Olimpik-Mobiuz
77%
Draw or Olimpik-Mobiuz
42%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+
34%
Olimpik-Mobiuz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals
84%
Buxoro 2+ goals
54%
Buxoro 3+ goals
27%
Olimpik-Mobiuz 1+ goals
60%
Olimpik-Mobiuz 2+ goals
23%
Olimpik-Mobiuz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)
76%
Olimpik-Mobiuz (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Olimpik-Mobiuz away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 1.93 + Olimpik-Mobiuz defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.81

Olimpik-Mobiuz attack 1.17 + Buxoro defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Buxoro scores more
58%
level
23%
Olimpik-Mobiuz scores more
19%

Buxoro at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Buxoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
F. Ikic
45+3'
F. Ikic
47'
D. Begic
68'
F. Ikic
82'
Own goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Buxoro vs Olimpik-Mobiuz

Buxoro beat Olimpik-Mobiuz 4-1 in Pro League A on May 10, 2024.

Goals: F. Ikic (28', 45+3', 68'), D. Begic (47'), ? (82' o.g.).