Buxoro 2–2 Neftchi: Result & Stats | Super League

Buxoro

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Neftchi

A. Stanisavljević 90+3' (pen), 52'

I. Abdullaev 82'

U. Khoshimov 32'

4/21/2023

Super League · Round 7Buxoro Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Buxoro34%

×Draw35%

Neftchi31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BuxoroExpected goals in this matchNeftchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

0.80

Buxoro

0.85

Neftchi

0.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.86

0.75

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Buxoro

1.00

Neftchi

0.86

allows per match

Buxoro

0.75

Neftchi

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par

Neftchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Neftchi →

0–019%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw

69%

Buxoro or Neftchi

65%

Draw or Neftchi

66%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+

12%

Neftchi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals

57%

Buxoro 2+ goals

21%

Buxoro 3+ goals

Neftchi 1+ goals

55%

Neftchi 2+ goals

19%

Neftchi 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)

52%

Neftchi (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Neftchi away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 1.00 + Neftchi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.85

Neftchi attack 0.86 + Buxoro defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 34%?"

Buxoro scores more

34%

level

35%

Neftchi scores more

31%

Buxoro at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Buxoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

V. Nikhaev

27'

I. Toshpo‘latov← J. Hasanov

32'

U. Khoshimov

45'

Z. Dzhuraboev

52'

A. Stanisavljević

62'

O. Kasyan← R. Ahmedov

62'

Y. Batyushin← G. Gulyamov

69'

73'

75'

80'

81'

I. Abdullaev← U. Khoshimov

81'

D. Turopov← N. Tukhtasinov

82'

I. Abdullaev

87'

A. Begimkulov← J. Ubaydullaev

87'

F. Jumankuziev← K. Iminov

87'

S. Muhammadiyev← V. Nihaev

89'

A. Mishchenko

90+2'

M. Gofurov

90+3'

A. StanisavljevićPenalty

Buxoro

Neftchi

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: K. Fuzaylov

27'▲I. Toshpo‘latov←▼J. Hasanov

62'▲O. Kasyan←▼R. Ahmedov

87'▲A. Begimkulov←▼J. Ubaydullaev

87'▲F. Jumankuziev←▼K. Iminov

87'▲S. Muhammadiyev←▼V. Nihaev

Buxoro substitutes

Toshpo‘latovKasyanBegimkulovJumankuzievMuhammadiyevAzimovAbdukhamidovKabuldjanovIsmoilov

Manager: V. Ezhurov

62'▲Y. Batyushin←▼G. Gulyamov

81'▲I. Abdullaev←▼U. Khoshimov

81'▲D. Turopov←▼N. Tukhtasinov

Neftchi substitutes

BatyushinAbdullaevTuropovG'ofurovOlimovTo‘rayevNazarovGulomovUbaydullayev