Buxoro 1–4 Metalourg: Result & Stats | Super League

Buxoro

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Metalourg

S. Nematov 38'

S. Ubaydullayev 60', 53'

S. Andreev 51' (pen)

A. Otakhonov 34'

7/2/2020

Super League · Round 7Buxoro Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Buxoro32%

×Draw28%

Metalourg40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BuxoroExpected goals in this matchMetalourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.23

Buxoro

1.08

Metalourg

1.23

Metalourg creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 83 away

0.90

creates per match

1.02

1.44

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Buxoro

0.90

Metalourg

1.02

allows per match

Buxoro

1.44

Metalourg

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par

Metalourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Metalourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw

60%

Buxoro or Metalourg

72%

Draw or Metalourg

68%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+

13%

Metalourg wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals

66%

Buxoro 2+ goals

29%

Buxoro 3+ goals

10%

Metalourg 1+ goals

71%

Metalourg 2+ goals

35%

Metalourg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)

45%

Metalourg (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Metalourg away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 0.90 + Metalourg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Metalourg attack 1.02 + Buxoro defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Buxoro scores more

32%

level

28%

Metalourg scores more

40%

Metalourg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Metalourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

S. Nematov← J. Khakimov

34'

A. Otakhonov

38'

S. Nematov

51'

S. AndreevPenalty

53'

S. Ubaydullayev

58'

B. Sadullaev← I. Abdullaev

60'

S. Ubaydullayev

64'

J. Shodmonov← Z. Z. Khasanov

64'

A. Toshkuziev← I. Toshpulatov

77'

K. Sattarov← Y. Chumak

77'

Z. Abdullayev← S. Ubaydullayev

90'

A. Abdulkhakov← D. Narzullaev

Buxoro

Metalourg

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Mukhamadiev

27'▲S. Nematov←▼J. Khakimov

58'▲B. Sadullaev←▼I. Abdullaev

64'▲J. Shodmonov←▼Z. Z. Khasanov

Buxoro substitutes

NematovSadullaevShodmonovJumaqulovKhusinovBeshimovKabuldjanovKarimovNasimov

Manager: A. Shipilov

64'▲A. Toshkuziev←▼I. Toshpulatov

77'▲K. Sattarov←▼Y. Chumak

77'▲Z. Abdullayev←▼S. Ubaydullayev

90'▲A. Abdulkhakov←▼D. Narzullaev

Metalourg substitutes

ToshkuzievSattarovAbdullayevAbdulkhakovIsayevTursunbaevBobojonovQudratillayevAbdumajidov