Buxoro 0–1 Kokand-1912: Result & Stats

Buxoro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kokand-1912

10/18/2024

Pro League A · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Buxoro46%

×Draw29%

Kokand-191224%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BuxoroExpected goals in this matchKokand-1912

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.82

Buxoro

1.25

Kokand-1912

0.82

Buxoro creates 52% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.93

creates per match

1.00

0.64

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Buxoro

1.93

Kokand-1912

1.00

allows per match

Buxoro

0.64

Kokand-1912

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par

Kokand-1912+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Kokand-1912 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw

76%

Buxoro or Kokand-1912

71%

Draw or Kokand-1912

54%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+

21%

Kokand-1912 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals

71%

Buxoro 2+ goals

36%

Buxoro 3+ goals

13%

Kokand-1912 1+ goals

56%

Kokand-1912 2+ goals

20%

Kokand-1912 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)

66%

Kokand-1912 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Kokand-1912 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 1.93 + Kokand-1912 defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Kokand-1912 attack 1.00 + Buxoro defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Buxoro scores more

46%

level

29%

Kokand-1912 scores more

24%

Buxoro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Buxoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff