Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Buxoro vs Dostlik — Pro League A 2026

Buxoro
Buxoro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dostlik
Dostlik
10/30/2024Pro League APro League A · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Buxoro63%
×Draw23%
Dostlik14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buxoro
1.75
Dostlik
0.68

Buxoro creates 157% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Buxoro
1.93
Dostlik
0.71

allows per match

Buxoro
0.64
Dostlik
1.57

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par
Dostlik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Dostlik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw
86%
Buxoro or Dostlik
77%
Draw or Dostlik
37%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+
36%
Dostlik wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals
83%
Buxoro 2+ goals
52%
Buxoro 3+ goals
25%
Dostlik 1+ goals
49%
Dostlik 2+ goals
15%
Dostlik 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)
82%
Dostlik (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Dostlik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 1.93 + Dostlik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dostlik attack 0.71 + Buxoro defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Buxoro scores more
63%
level
23%
Dostlik scores more
14%

Buxoro at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Buxoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: Buxoro 1–1 Dostlik

Buxoro and Dostlik drew 1-1 in Pro League A on October 30, 2024.