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Buxoro vs Bunyodkor — Super League 2026

Buxoro
Buxoro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bunyodkor
Bunyodkor
4/7/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Buxoro Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Buxoro32%
×Draw27%
Bunyodkor41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buxoro
1.14
Bunyodkor
1.34

Bunyodkor creates 18% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 100 away

creates per match

Buxoro
0.94
Bunyodkor
1.29

allows per match

Buxoro
1.40
Bunyodkor
1.34

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par
Bunyodkor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Bunyodkor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw
59%
Buxoro or Bunyodkor
73%
Draw or Bunyodkor
68%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+
13%
Bunyodkor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals
68%
Buxoro 2+ goals
32%
Buxoro 3+ goals
11%
Bunyodkor 1+ goals
74%
Bunyodkor 2+ goals
39%
Bunyodkor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)
43%
Bunyodkor (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.40 · 62 matches

Bunyodkor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 0.94 + Bunyodkor defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Bunyodkor attack 1.29 + Buxoro defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Buxoro scores more
32%
level
27%
Bunyodkor scores more
41%

Bunyodkor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bunyodkor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Buxoro 0–2 Bunyodkor

Bunyodkor beat Buxoro 2-0 in Super League on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Buxoro Sport Majmuasi in Bukhara.