Buxoro 0–1 Andijan: Result & Stats | Super League

Buxoro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Andijan

6/23/2023

Super League · Round 13Buxoro Sport Majmuasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Buxoro38%

×Draw28%

Andijan34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BuxoroExpected goals in this matchAndijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

Buxoro

1.25

Andijan

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 87 away

0.94

creates per match

0.94

1.40

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Buxoro

0.94

Andijan

0.94

allows per match

Buxoro

1.40

Andijan

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par

Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Andijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw

66%

Buxoro or Andijan

72%

Draw or Andijan

62%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+

17%

Andijan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals

71%

Buxoro 2+ goals

36%

Buxoro 3+ goals

13%

Andijan 1+ goals

69%

Andijan 2+ goals

33%

Andijan 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)

53%

Andijan (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.40 · 62 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 0.94 + Andijan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Andijan attack 0.94 + Buxoro defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Buxoro scores more

38%

level

28%

Andijan scores more

34%

Buxoro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Buxoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff