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Buxoro vs Andijan — Super League 2026

Buxoro
Buxoro
FT
1 – 0
Andijan
Andijan
B. Shodmonov 42' (pen)
6/29/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Buxoro Sport Majmuasi (Buxoro (Bukhara))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Buxoro37%
×Draw27%
Andijan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Buxoro
1.24
Andijan
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 88 away

creates per match

Buxoro
0.90
Andijan
0.97

allows per match

Buxoro
1.44
Andijan
1.58

finishing

Buxoro+0.00on par
Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buxoro ↓

Andijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Buxoro or draw
64%
Buxoro or Andijan
73%
Draw or Andijan
63%

Winning margin

Buxoro wins by 2+
16%
Andijan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Buxoro 1+ goals
71%
Buxoro 2+ goals
35%
Buxoro 3+ goals
13%
Andijan 1+ goals
70%
Andijan 2+ goals
34%
Andijan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Buxoro (draw refunded)
51%
Andijan (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buxoro at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buxoro attack 0.90 + Andijan defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.24

Andijan attack 0.97 + Buxoro defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Buxoro scores more
37%
level
27%
Andijan scores more
36%

Buxoro at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Buxoro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
B. ShodmonovPenalty
65'
79'
79'
86'
87'
A. Kulesha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Buxoro 1–0 Andijan

Buxoro beat Andijan 1-0 in Super League on June 29, 2019.

Goals: B. Shodmonov (42' pen).

The match was played at Buxoro Sport Majmuasi (Buxoro (Bukhara)).