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BuxDu vs Yaypan — Pro League A 2026

BuxDu
BuxDu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yaypan
Yaypan
A. Turaev 81'
S. Ashurov 53'
J. Abdujabborov 66'
6/5/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

BuxDu49%
×Draw23%
Yaypan28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BuxDu
1.88
Yaypan
1.38

BuxDu creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

BuxDu
1.50
Yaypan
1.25

allows per match

BuxDu
1.50
Yaypan
2.25

finishing

BuxDu+0.00on par
Yaypan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BuxDu ↓

Yaypan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

BuxDu or draw
72%
BuxDu or Yaypan
77%
Draw or Yaypan
51%

Winning margin

BuxDu wins by 2+
27%
Yaypan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

BuxDu 1+ goals
85%
BuxDu 2+ goals
56%
BuxDu 3+ goals
29%
Yaypan 1+ goals
75%
Yaypan 2+ goals
40%
Yaypan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

BuxDu (draw refunded)
63%
Yaypan (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BuxDu at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Yaypan away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BuxDu attack 1.50 + Yaypan defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Yaypan attack 1.25 + BuxDu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

BuxDu scores more
49%
level
23%
Yaypan scores more
28%

BuxDu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "BuxDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
S. Ashurov
66'
J. Abdujabborov
81'
F. Umaraliev
81'
A. Turaev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League A: BuxDu 2–1 Yaypan

BuxDu beat Yaypan 2-1 in Pro League A on June 5, 2026.

Goals: S. Ashurov (53'), J. Abdujabborov (66'), A. Turaev (81').